PREDICTIT

Updated 04-May-2020.

Mondo shtuff from around the internet, all about PREDICTIT!

Meet the ‘stock market’ for politics: A non-profit is cleared by regulators to set up wagering on nominations, elections and votes.

Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!: What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. Predictit is a website that allows people to buy shares in a given candidate’s support in a given state — essentially a political stock market, and one that could prove more accurate than traditional polling methods. Economics correspondent Paul Solman reports.

Meet the ‘stock market’ for politics: A non-profit is cleared by regulators to set up wagering on nominations, elections and votes.

Online Exchange Shows Jeb Bush as the GOP’s 2016 Favorite: Donald Trump leads just about every public-opinion survey of the Republican presidential field, with one notable exception: PredictIt, the online marketplace for investors looking to buy and sell shares in an expected outcome.

My botty best at summarizing from Wikipedia: PredictIt is a new Zealand-based prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on political and financial events . the market was launched on 3 November 2014 . by March 2020, the website had approximately 100,000 active traders . PredictIt’s operating expenses are covered by charging a fee of 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment . each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question rules say the government was indeed shutdown for Christmas Eve . the contract resolves to no, despite the government being shutdown . a significant on-going dispute is whether the market should resolve to 53 or 52 . the people supporting 52 believe that Rick Scott’s seat should not be included . people supporting 53 believe that his seat should, since his seat will still be a Republican seat . the longest running dispute of all occurred during the 2020 Democratic Buttigieg declared the winner of State Delegate Equivalents by the Iowa Democratic Party . PredictIt chose to not resolve the market citing that they would keep open until there was no chance of the decision being changed